Can An African Team Win The World Cup?

Abedi Pele seems to think so, and he offers up some very fair points in the process.

It’s no secret that the host continent typically provides the winner. In fact only Brazil & Argentina have won it outside South America, and Argentina’s victory was still in the Americas, in Mexico. And it’s also no secret that the host team is typically boosted a notch by the home faithful. Germany, South Korea & France provide enough evidence in the last three alone. But is that enough for a continent which is clearly still developing in the football world?

Abedi’s thoughts:

“African teams are coming to this African World Cup to showcase their talent and this is our best chance of getting close to the trophy itself. In the history of the World Cup only Brazil has won it outside their own continent, in Sweden in 1958 and in Japan in 2002. But here in Africa we will definitely have one team that will go far — and when I say go far I mean as far as getting the trophy. When I say this people laugh, but I believe it.”

“It happened and they had to admit I was right. I believe Africa is going to do very well. Look at Nigeria, look at Algeria, Ghana, these teams are growing so fast. It will be very tough for Egypt to qualify now for the finals, but look at South Africa. They have learnt about their weaknesses in this Confederations Cup, but they will get better over the next 12 months too.”

Which brings us to…the contenders:

South Africa: It would be unfair to start off with anyone but the hosts. Unfair and imprudent, actually, as time and time again big tournaments have proven to be exceptionally kind to the hosts. Are they of the requisite quality to challenge for the Cup, even with the clear home advantage? Probably not. They’ve quite embarrassingly failed to qualify for the African Cup of Nations coming up in January and likely wouldn’t have qualified for WC 2010 were they not the hosts. So while you may be able to pencil them in for a knockout round spot – as is typically the case for hosts – it would take a monumental upset for them to take the title. They should be more South Korea than France.

Then again, they may be the only country who can tolerate the vuvuzela for a month….

Egypt: As two-time defending champs of the ACN, they’re clearly in the discussion. And that’s in no small part to the fact that the grand majority of their players are African-based (only four of the Confederations Cup squad), and much of that split between to teams – Al Ahly & El Zamalek.

But it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll make it their in the first place – which would be their first since 1990 at that – which is sort of a slight prerequisite for hoisting the cup. That and the fact that they were blown out by the United States – not exactly a player on the int’l scene – doesn’t really bode well. Unless, of course, they draw the Group O’Death and can play up to the level of their opponents without the distractions of HookerGate 2.0.

Ivory Coast: Best looking team on paper? I’d say so – they are the highest ranked African team by Elo, after all. But are they deep enough to win the title? Tough call. They’ve certainly got the names – Drogba, Toure #1, Toure #2, Kalou, Eboue, etc – but do they have the role players? The underappreciated star role players who are the true heroes in big tournaments? And do they have a better-than-good keeper, a position which has proven so vital time and time again on the WC stage?

And while they are certainly African, precisely one player from the most recent qualifiers is African-based – the backup keeper. All this stuff points to them doing well, but can they beat a Brazil? A Holland? That’s a big ask.

But if Drogba gets hot….

Ghana: Love the midfield, the defense has been stellar in qualifying, now where the hell are the goals going to come from? And don’t say Freddy Adu or Mario Balotelli. (I’m sure if you asked Abedi he’d point to a certain attacking midfield type currently on the books of the Velodrome.)

Ghana, with their solid display in Germany and great start to qualifying, are a likely candidate for the strongest African showing, provided someone can bulge the back of the net from within the 18 yard box.

Cameroon: They have the opposite problem of the Ivory Coast: too many good role players, not enough potential stars in 2010. Besides that one, of course. And they, like Egypt, currently sit bottom of their qualifying group. That’s not exactly how you win world titles.

Nigeria: The Super Eagles are an interesting study. Perpetually stellar on the youth levels – three world titles, five African titles and an Olympic gold medal (along with a silver at Beijing) in the youth sectors over the last 25 years – but it hasn’t really translated to the seniors. They won the ACN in ‘94 and made it to the knockouts in both ‘94 & ‘98, but lost in both entries and were dismissed as soon as they’d arrived in Asia in 2002.

As ever, they’ve got loads of talent in the pipeline but may be one tournament away once again.

Do any of these teams look likely champions to you? Can they beat Brazil, Spain, Argentina, Holland, Italy and England to the trophy? Can they break the barrier and move beyond the quarterfinals, which no African team has ever done? Or is it, as some would suspect, including myself, simply too early in the game for African countries?

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