World Cup Favorites Ten Weeks Til: It’s Red & Furious.

March 24th, 2010 | by: chris | View Comments

Upon learning that Thierry Henry won’t be participating in the World Cup according to some bookmakers, even though he will, it dawned it’s probably about time to start paying attention to betting odds (entirely unsolicited, for the reccord). I’m not a betting man – it’s not so much the betting but the enforcing I have difficulties with, as I’m still awaiting payment for the 1992 Super Bowl – but I’ve always found fascinating the accuracy with which they predict on paper sports which aren’t played on paper.

Having picked two bookmakers, the unassailable sample of two has drawn a consensus: Andres Iniesta is going to be making a lot more babies.

(Or David Villa. Or Fernando. Or Xavi. The thing is Spain are favorites.)

Paddy Power:

William Hill:

It’s not really worth picking apart nuance down the list, though the Netherlands isn’t getting anywhere near the respect it deserves, so we’re staying right at the top: Brazil, to me, have been, are and will be favorites right up until they’re no longer participants. The Spanish Euro 2008 win was wonderful, but they’d already won it once before (’64), which that didn’t change any fortunes on the global stage – a stage far grander. In fact Spain wouldn’t make the World Cup knockouts until 22 years after their first Euros win. They’re arguably the best collection of individual talent, but that doesn’t always, one could even say often doesn’t, win World Cups. (You’ll have to go all the way back to 2006 to find evidence.) And it’s even rarer that the reigning European champion has repeated with a World Cup – West Germany won in 1974 when it was held in, you guessed it, West Germany.

This not to mention the oft unmentioned Brazilian advantage of drawing a difficult group.

But I suppose the gripe is less with Spain first and Brazil second and more Brazil as a joint-second. They’re awfully, awfully good and deserving of at least co-favorite status.

As for the rest…

- There’s great faith in either Messi, Maradona or Messidona in South Africa – faith which I strongly doubt is cut into even thirds.

- And I wonder how these odds looked before the 1-0 over Germany in Germany earlier this month. Is that the betting man’s money?

- Japanese coach Takeshi Okada believes Japan can make the semifinals; the bookies don’t.

It’ll be interesting to see how the odds evolve over the next ten weeks, and then there’s only that pesky bit about playing the games.