I know the arguments against the FIFA ranking system (so use a better one; SPI anyone?) and realize that this approach lends itself towards teams “rigging” their rankings in the months coming up to the draw. But for goodness sake, the current draw system is broken, and putting USA in a pot with the dregs of OFC and AFC is just criminal.

So here is how one would applying a basic 32 team bracket with S-curve this time. Start by seeding all 32 teams according to the Oct09 FIFA rankings, regardless of region:

Team Rank Seed Order
———– —- —- —–
Spain 1 1 1
Brazil 2 2 2
Netherlands 3 3 3
Italy 4 4 4
Portugal 5 5 5
Germany 6 6 6
France 7 7 7
Argentina 8 8 8

England 9 9 16
Cameroon 11 10 15
Greece 12 11 14
USA 14 12 13
Mexico 15 13 12
Côte d’Ivoire 16 14 11
Chile 17 15 10
Switzerland 18 16 9

Uruguay 19 17 17
Serbia 20 18 18
Australia 21 19 19
Nigeria 22 20 20
Denmark 26 21 21
Algeria 28 22 22
Paraguay 30 23 23
Slovenia 33 24 24

Slovakia 34 25 32
Ghana 37 26 31
Honduras 38 27 30
Japan 43 28 29
South Korea 52 29 28
New Zealand 77 30 27
North Korea 84 31 26
South Africa 86 32 25

Then put teams in groups A-H,according to the S-curve order:
seeds 1-8 into groups A-H in ORDER
seeds 9-16 into groups A-H in REVERSE ORDER
seeds 17-24 into groups A-H in ORDER
seeds 25-32 into groups A-H in REVERSE ORDER

The “Order” column above reflects this placement. Here is what you get:
A
Spain -1
Switzerland -18
Uruguay -19
South Africa -86
B
Brazil -2
Chile -17 *
Serbia -20
North Korea -84
C
Netherlands -3
Côte d’Ivoire -16
Australia -21
New Zealand -77
D
Italy -4
Mexico -15
Nigeria -22
South Korea -52
E
Portugal -5
USA -14
Denmark -26
Japan -43
F
Germany -6
Greece -12
Algeria -28
Honduras -38
G
France -7
Cameroon -11
Paraguay -30
Ghana -37 *
H
Argentina -8
England -9
Slovenia -33
Slovakia -34 *

The teams marked with an asterisk break one of the two confederation rules, and therefore need to be shifted up or down one group to fix the problem. This is easily done, especially in groups G and H by swapping Ghana and Slovakia

The final result:

A
Spain -1
Chile -17
Uruguay -19
South Africa -86
B
Brazil -2
Switzerland -18
Serbia -20
North Korea -84
C
Netherlands -3
Côte d’Ivoire -16
Australia -21
New Zealand -77
D
Italy -4
Mexico -15
Nigeria -22
South Korea -52
E
Portugal -5
USA -14
Denmark -26
Japan -43
F
Germany -6
Greece -12
Algeria -28
Honduras -38
G
France -7
Cameroon -11
Paraguay -30
Slovakia -34
H
Argentina -8
England -9
Slovenia -33
Ghana -37

These groupings are MUCH fairer than anything we are likely to see tomorrow. Which means that FIFA, in its infinite stupidity and corruption, will never get anywhere near them.

I think the weakest group are that from Asia toghether with New Zealand because of their soccer history. But no opponent will be easy and Australia, Japan and South Korea can surprise.

Another interesting situation is which seeded opponents are weakest. I would say South Africa, France, and Argentina. I have great respect for Argentina and I think that under normal circumstances it would be one of the favourits, but Maradona is a very bad coach. France is a weak first seeded team as well as South Africa.

I am sceptical about the high rating of Spain because it has been favourite several times before and never has performed in a World Cup according to the expectations. It is a great team and can win some matches with huge difference of goals, but I doubt of the team’s ability in adversity when beeing two or three goals under. Until now it has not shown the mental strength of Brasil or Germany to fight back. A World Cup is more than pure technical ability. At the last World Cup Brasil had apparently the best team man for man and were eliminated in the quarter finals because some of its players were in bad shape and overweight.

It would definitely be a match, but I would put the US as slight favorites against Korea and Japan. But now we’re just getting too specific: what we’re seeing now won’t necessarily be what shows up in South Africa.

Oh, and ESPN has officially launched its World Cup site!! It has a basic run down on every team, a review of the venues, the draw, a “Pick the Best Team Ever” poll, and they even go WAY into depth on about half the countries (seemingly at random: Ghana, Brazil, North Korea, Italy, etc.) Soon enough they’ll even have a Bracket Competition up (after the draw). So. Effin’. Psyched.

Particularly with Bradley managing.

I quite like Jose’s system for picking the teams, though. Can’t see any real problems with it.

I agree with Jose above. One thing I do not like with the system used recently is that confederations are paired together in the same point. I agree with the idea of preventing teams (other then UEFA where it cannot be avoided) from the same confederation being in the same group, but why group say African and South American teams together?

Here is what I would do.

Seeded teams – I know the most common system for deciding seeds (although not used for 2006) is a formula based on the last thre world cups. I do not know how it worked so I invented my own. The 7 highest scoring teams would be seeded along with the hosts South Africa. These 7 teams in alphabetical order are Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Oddly enough under my system had France lost their play off to Ireland the team that would have been seeded in their place would have been Paraguay.

How I would do the draw.

1) South Africa are in Group A. The other seeds drawn to groups B through to H.

2) Conveniently there are 8 unseeded UEFA (Europe) teams. Draw one to each group.

3) African teams. Have one pot with the 5 unseeded African teams and another pot with the 7 non African seeds. Draw an African team then draw a seed. The African team then goes in that seed’s group.

4) CONMEBOL (South America). The same again. One pot with the 3 unseeded CONMEBOL teams and another with the 6 non CONMEBOL seeds. Draw a South American team then draw the seed whose group they go into.

This helps to mix things up as it is possible a group may contain both an African and South American team (only for a UEFA seed), one or neither.

5) The final step of the draw would be a pot containing the North America, Asian and Oceanic teams to fill the remaining spaces. Groups may need 0, 1 or 2 teams from this pot. Obviously if a group needs 2 teams they would have to be from different confederations.

I have tried a sample draw with this system using a random number generator. Oddly enough this kept the unseeded African and South American teams apart. The two seeds to avoid an African team were England and Italy. The three that drew a South American team were England, Italy and South Africa.

The groups were.

-A-
South Africa
Paraguay
Netherlands
New Zealand

-B-
France
Nigeria
North Korea
Slovenia

-C-
England
Honduras
Denmark
Chile

-D-
Brazil
Serbia
South Korea
Cote d’Ivorie

-E-
Spain
Switzerland
Austalia
Algeria

-F-
Argentina
Slovakia
Ghana
United States

-G-
Italy
Uruguay
Greece
Mexico

-H-
Germany
Portugal
Cameroon
Japan

I hope they use this kind of approach, but i can’t see it. Apparantly they are releasing the system they will use on Wednesday so we’ll have to wait and see til then.

I don’t know. I saw in a preview video released by FIFA how they were stressing that the draw should be “clear and easy to follow by anyone”… jaja, maybe that was their way of eliminating this type of approach.

This is the kind of draw I would most like to see, a random one, but I don’t think FIFA are clever enough to use the 24 bowl system – or they would just be too lazy, cos tbh it is very simple. They would rather use an easy system which would mean splitting into 4 pots, and most likely regional, which is a shame for the confed which gets put with the AFC/OFC teams who to be fair, are the weakest confeds. I say this as New Zealand and North Korea are def the worst 2 teams in the tournament, and I would only put Slovenia, Algeria and Honduras behind South Korea & Japan from the entire teamlist from other confeds. Australia are alright, but not in the top half of the 32 imo anyway, whereas USA and Mexico would have a shout.

@ Tom: to be honest, I think it’s more that people want every match up to be possible, not that everyone wants to be grouped with the Asian teams. Although it has to be said that from the bottom up the AFC/OFC has the weakest teams at the tournament. North Korea and New Zealand (with all respect) are due in for #31 and #32.* Japan is still suspect. Australia and South Korea are threats, no doubt about it, but I doubt you’ll find any team coach who’d want to avoid those two over USA and Mexico.**

* North Korea in particular, as they only got by through a combination of their defensive approach w/ quick counterattacks and some pretty terrible attacking from the other Middle Eastern teams (KSA, Iran, and UAE). They’ll be found out against any team outside their confederation.

** Honduras would be slight favorites against the bottom rung Asian teams as well, IMO.