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Round of 16 Qualification Scenarios: Group D

   

letter-dWe’re well into the second round of group matches at World Cup 2010 now, and the qualification picture for the Round of 16 is coming into focus. A few teams have already booked their spots, but most of the places are still up for grabs. So we’re going through each group to show you who’s in, who’s out, and what each team needs to get through.

This time, it’s Group D: Australia, Germany, Ghana, and Serbia.

Remaining matches: Ghana vs. Germany, Australia vs. Serbia

Ghana

4 points from 2 matches, +1 goal differential
Wins the group with:
* A win over Germany
* A draw with Germany, combined with an Australia-Serbia draw

Qualifies with above scenarios plus:
* A draw with Germany (regardless of other result)
* A loss to Germany, combined with an Australia-Serbia draw that leaves Ghana ahead of Serbia on goal difference / tie-breakers.
* A loss to Germany, combined with an Australia win that leaves Ghana ahead of Australia o goal difference / tie-breakers.

Germany

3 points from 2 matches, +3 goal differential
Wins the group with:
* A win over Ghana, as long as Serbia doesn’t win by enough to beat Germany on goal difference.

Qualifies with above scenario plus:
* A win over Ghana (regardless of other result)
* A draw with Ghana combined with an Australia-Serbia draw (Germany win on goal difference).
* A draw with Ghana combined with an Australia win that leaves Germany ahead of Australia on goal difference / tie-breakers.

Serbia

3 points from 2 matches, 0 goal differential
Wins the group with:
* A win over Australia combined with a Germany-Ghana draw.
* A win over Australia combined with a Germany win that leaves Serbia ahead of Germany on goal difference / tie-breakers.

Qualifies with above scenario plus:
* A win over Australia (regardless of other result)
* A draw with Australia, combined with a Germany win that leaves Serbia ahead of Ghana on goal difference / tie-breakers.
* A draw with Australia, combined with a Ghana win.

Australia

1 point from 2 matches, -4 goal differential
Australia cannot win the group

Qualify with the following scenario:
* A win over Serbia, combined with a Ghana win over Germany.
* A win over Serbia, combined with a Germany win over Ghana that leaves Australia ahead of Ghana on goal difference / tie-breakers.
* A win over Serbia by 8 goals, combined with a Germany-Ghana draw (Australia beats Germany on goal difference)


  • paddybts

    Umm…. Ian, even though it's not *that* likely, you seem to have ignored the most likely route for Australia to qualify.
    Aust beats Serbia and Ghana beats Germany.

  • Choobaka

    It's Germany and Serbia going through,most likely

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jelena-Tesic/1290679267 Jелена Тешић

    you analised everything but Ghana wins Germany, so there are few more combinations

  • WorldCupBlog

    By the time we get to Group H, I'm going to get through one of these without missing an angle. Thanks – added now – you're right, that was the simplest way forward for Australia.

  • http://www.facebook.com/nikola.burazer Nikola Burazer

    You also missed that Serbia can qualify by drawing Australia if Ghana beats Germany. I'll do a similar analysis on my blog, but just for Serbia, and of course, analyse the tactics we should employ in order to qualify :)

  • WorldCupBlog

    Just added that one now. Missed a few this morning – sorry – should be complete now.

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