Big Question: Will we see a First-Time World Cup Champion?

April 3rd, 2006 | by: WC Bob |

The countries that have won the World Cup are a pretty elite group. Since the first tournament in 1930, 78 countries have qualified, yet only 11 have played in a final match and only 7 have walked away with the trophy. This year’s tournament features six of the seven winners with only Uruguay staying at home. The other 26 teams hope that they will join Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, and France in the exclusive World Cup club of champions. Will we see an eighth team gain membership this year?

If you go by the odds alone, than there will be a first time winner.

From a statistical standpoint it would make sense to say that a first timer will win. There are simply more of them out there and therefore they have more of an opportunity to win. Another positive statistic is that of the 17 total tournaments played, the host country has won six. So three-time winner Germany is not a lock based on home field advantage alone.

You could also argue that there are more teams than usual with a legitimate shot of being champion. It is not too far fetched to envision Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Czech Republic and any number of the European teams making a run towards the final.

You might even point to the fact that of the seven champions, France and Germany are both fielding weaker teams than usual, thereby further reducing the odds of a repeat winner. Throw out Brazil and Argentina because they are playing on European soil and that leaves just England and Italy.

Still, sometimes you have to make predictions based on your gut and not on numbers. My gut says that we might see a team reach the final for the first time, but in the end we won’t see a first time winner in Germany 2006.

What do you think?

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http://www.bensefels.de Bense

Yep, go with Spain, Portugal, Netherlands and Czech Republic.

Okay, from top to bottom. Portugal will not get far because they current generation is not ready yet for a big final after EURO.

Spain. Spain? No way. Not Spain. Each and every WC people put their money on them. They just don’t have what it takes. Never had.

Czech Republic might be a god try, until they play a nation like Argentina that can outplay them.

Netherlands. Oh yeah, would be a freakin funny final if Germany joins them there ;-) Still, that team is in a slow but constant reshaping. Who knows, this time, my money would be on them.
sphinx

Germany is historic high ground for the Dutch team. highest times of orange always there. Many people underrate Netherlands for being inexperienced. Actually the team blend 8-9 experienced players with afew new faces.
Defence line could be full of new talents. But it looks more disciplined and have great proven results.
Look at champion legues for last two years and euro 2004, winners are neither favourates nor big guns. That’s the trend existing right now.
On top of all, winning managers has to be single minded, like Big Phil, like Rehergal and not like Sven.
I see Basten only has that type.
justin

it wont happen this year.

I guarantee that out of these 4 (Italy, England, Brazil, Argentina) one of those will win it, and I also thing 2 of those will be in the final
http://portugal.worldcupblog.org Luis Paulo

I agree with you. I believe we might see Portugal, Netherlands, Czech Rep or Spain at the final but they will probably loose. Netherlands and Czech Rep wich already reached the final twice before.
Bidemi

Beyond Holland, I wouldn’t hope for too much. The perennial winners, and known super powers are hungrier than ever in this World Cup. It seems everyone has something to prove. Personally, I think the Netherlands have the best chance; they will reach the Finals, only to fall to Brazil. They have what it takes to get to the ball, but I don’t think they can dance.

But rest assured that in the 2010 WC in South Africa, there will be a first-time World Champion. When the WC is held on non-European ground, these countries tend to rise to the occasion. I can’t wait for it. Exciting times ahead.
Luis

New champion for sure. Portugal! :-)
Scott

If Roque Santa Cruz is completely healthy, I think Paraguay has a shot at it. Without Roque I don’t think they’ll do that well, but if he recovers in time and is playing at 100%, he’ll be able to provide the decisive goal allowing them to tie or win games. Call it a Cinderella possibility.
Dido

England, Portugal, Germany and Serbia are for me the most likely to cause the biggest upset. For some reason, I have a feeling that Brazil is not going to win.
james

Dido,

Last I checked Enland would not be considered an underdog capable of an “upset”

With names (and wages) like Gerrard, Lampard, Rooney, Cole, Owen, Campbell, Ferdinand and last but certainly not least Erickson, I would think England one of the favorites.

You must be thinking of former colonies Australia and the US or perhaps T&T ;)
http://www.bensefels.de Bense

And if England failes, they’re gonna blame it on the Swede ;-)

If they win, it’s gonna be an English victory. If they come short of expectations, it’S that bloody Swede. It was like that after 2004, too.