It would be lovely if it were to happen to the Brazilians or the Argentines. Maybe even to the Sapnish and the French too.

But seriously speaking, from what I can see on paper (and it’s only on paper, mind), most minor teams (and by minor I do mean ALL teams not from Europe and South America) don’t look too good, or have very tough draws. Most of the other teams, including Mexico, will not create a major upset, whomever they might happen to beat.

Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana are the best of Africa, but are in the two toughest groups of the World Cup. I can imagine either of them causing an upset, especially CIV (they could conceivably do a Cameroon 90), but I’m not going to bet any money on it.

Togo and Angola are completely unknown quantities, but they don’t seem quite ready to take the world at their stride just yet. Especially Togo, who have the look of thrashing boys all around, even in one of the weakest groups in the finals. Angola could just about do something to Mexico, a team doesn’t look very convincing, and which doesn’t have all that good a World Cup finals record anyway (they even lost to the bloody US last time).

Tunisia look better than last time, they have qualified for three finals in a row, and have lots of players with experience of playing in Europe, but I do believe the Ukraine (especially) and Spain are much too good for them. Spain though are notorious underperformers at finals, and the Ukraine has never been tried at the highest level. All in all, I can’t honestly expect a surprise here either.

The Asian sides are rather over-rated. Japan certainly wouldn’t have made it past the second round last time if the World Cup was taking place anywhere else, and thery’re highly unlikely of progressing this time. If they do, now that would be a pretty major surprise. Brazil and Croatia should stuff them proper. Especially since they appear so inanely confident of doing well.

Korea have qualified often for the finals, but they’ve never really made their mark. Last time the World Cup was in Europe they were stuffed proper, except by the stunningly boring Belgians. No one can seriously believe they would have made it to the last four anywhere outseide Korea last time. This time they cannot reasonably hope to get past the French, or even the Swiss, who have a handy side, with a modicum of experience. They might be able to beat Togo.

Saudi Arabia was the worst team in the last world cup, and I can’t see why they are going to be much better this time. Nobody expects anything from them, except perhaps for the Saudi Royal Family. Their presence in the finals should convince everybody for the need for intercontinental play offs.

Iran seem the best of the Asian bunch, and they have been blessed with what (on paper) is the weakest group of all. Portugal, while hugely talented just seem to bottle it; these are the people who lost to Greece twice, in their own home country. Mexico doesn’t seem going anywhere in a hurry, and Angola are not, according to all accounts, among Africa’s finest.
Iran have a few things going for them, foremost among which is that many of their players have experience of playing at the highest level. They have the ability to qualify more than any other ‘third world’ team.

The CONCACAF teams don’t seem to be going anywhere in a hurry either. The US and Trinidad should finish bottom of their groups with nul points, the way CONCACAF teams are meant to do. England, Sweden and Paraguay are just the sort of teams that can expose weaker teams very badly, so Trinidad should concede a lot of goals too. Maybe more than 10, at a guess.

The United States are supposed to be better than in 1998, but they are nowhere near as good their FIFA ranking makes them out to be. I very much doubt if they would have qualified from a European group. Hence, I cannot see them beating any European team in Europe. I don’t think they can beat Ghana either, so I would expect them to finish bottom of their group, with no points.

Finally, Australia didn’t impress me at all in beating a very bored Greek team 1-0 in home territory. They did manage to knock Uruguay out, which was a surprise, but they seem very dull and artless. They reminded me of a poor Scnadinavian team, more than anything else. Lots of power, no skill wahtsoever. They have a lucky draw, in that they face Japan, but I can’t imagine them getting a point of Croatia.

So, all in all, although I find all except the first one highly unlikely:
Likeliest surprise: Iran go through, knocking out Mexico or Portugal
2nd likeliest: Ivory Coast go through, knocking out Holland (or conceivably Argentina even)
3d likeliest: Tunisia go through (knocking out Spain, or even the Ukraine)
4th likeliest: Ghana go through, knocking out the Czechs, or by a monstrous tretch of the imagination, Italy.

But Brazil haven’t failed in the first round since 1966 (I think?) and 40 years of history means it’s highly, highly unlikely this will happen.

In light of the Serie A scandal, I could see Italy having a shocker and going home early.

B – Paraguay might pull a draw, but once again, no upsets here… England/Sweden 1/2

C – Tough to say any upsets… I think the top 3 teams will beat IC and then beat each other, with 3 level on 6 points and goal difference being the deciding factor. Who has more firepower? I have seen (in person) both the Dutch and the Serbs run up BIG scores. Argentina goes home? Maybe it’s an upset, but I won’t be upset.

D – Second softest group, after Group A. Both teams that qualify from here will lose their second round game to Holland and Serbia.

E – USA will get no points. Once again, this would not upset me.

F – If anyone takes points from Brzail, it would be an upset.

G – The other three teams, besides France, any of them could end up in second.

H – Third softest group, after groups A and D. After this past weekend’s friendlies, Ukraine has a shot at winning the group. They are in a no lose situation. The only first-time entry in this group, nothing to lose. Upsets? Likely not.