A Lot at Stake on Thursday

June 22nd, 2006 | by: WC Bob |

Good golly, Thursday is a huge day of World Cup football. Brazil is the only team playing today that is guaranteed a spot in the round of 16. The seven other teams are all still mathematically alive. With two games going on at the same time, you will need at least four sets of eyes keeping track of it all. Here is what each of the teams needs to happen to advance to the next round.

Group E

Italy needs just a draw against the Czech Republic to advance. Italy will win the group with a win or with a draw if Ghana also beats the USA. If they draw and the USA beat Ghana, Italy would need a better goal difference than the Americans to win the group (currently +2 for Italy, and -3 for the USA).

Czech Republic needs to win against Italy to be assured a spot in the Round of 16. If the Czechs earn a draw, they will also have to sweat the USA-Ghana result. They will win the group with a victory over Italy if Ghana doesn’t beat the USA and finish with a better goal difference (Czechs +1, Ghana 0).

Ghana will advance with a win over the United States and if there is a winner between Italy and the Czech Republic. They can also advance with a draw against the USA and a Czech Republic loss to Italy. Ghana will win the group if the Czechs and Italy draw and Ghana wins or if the Czechs win and Ghana wins and Ghana finish with a better goal difference. (Czechs +1, Ghana 0).

If you think all of that is complicated, it only gets worse. The United States needs a win over Ghana and a Czech Republic loss to Italy to advance. If the Czechs draw with Italy, the USA must win and make up the goal difference with the Czechs (currently +1 for the Czechs and -3 for USA). If the Czechs beat Italy and the USA beats Ghana, the Americans must make up the goal difference with Italy (currently +2 for Italy).

GROUP F

Brazil is through. With a win or a draw against Japan they will capture the group. A Brazil loss and a huge Australia win over Croatia would give the Socceroos the group.

Japan can qualify for the Round of 16 with a win over Brazil and a Croatia loss or draw against Australia. Japan can also qualify with a win and a Croatia win if they finish with a better goal difference than Croatia (Croatia currently -1, Japan -2).

Australia needs a win against Croatia to guarantee a spot in the next round, but they can also go through with a draw if Japan fails to beat Brazil.

Croatia can qualify for the Round of 16 with a victory over Australia, provided Japan doesn’t beat Brazil and they finish with a better goal difference (Croatia currently -1, Japan -2).

Got that all straightened out? Good. Here’s how I think things will turn out.

Group E
1. Italy
2. Czech Republic

Group F
1. Brazil
2. Australia

This day is very wide open. What do you think will be the outcome?

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Faron

Rob I think you made a mistake, you said italy would win first place if they draw and ghana beats the us? Ghana would be in first if italy draws.
Dave The Hat

Im hoping for Italy/Ghana.

Forza Australia!
cow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNaz_4vhWiA
http://brazil.worldcupblog.org Zé

Although I’ll be cheering for Australia, I think it’s highly unlikely they’ll grab it. Croatia is just a much better team, at least on paper.

And Japan was the big letdown of the group imo.
Mike S

Group E should be Italy and Ghana in that order. Group F will be Brazil and Australia (on the basis of a 0-0 draw with Croatia). I hope Croatia advances, but while they have a great defense, they lack offensive punch.
Nicholas

Just A point (and now this is going to get complicated)… whoever wins out of Croatia and Australia has the chance (not likely though) of having the easiest run to the finals… This would require Ghana to beat the US and Italy and The Czech’s to have a draw (i think this is actually quite likely). If this were to happen Ghana would top their group and Italy would come 2nd

This would mean the winner out of Austrlia and Croatia would play Ghana and Brazil would have to play Italy (a much harder opponant i believe)… (SO if this were all to unfold Topping group F would actually put you in a worse situation than being the runner up…. Brazil would probalby beat any of these teams anyway but still it would suck to meat Italy so early on….

More on this senario: If said, events unfold (ie Ghana tops their group by beating the USA and Italy and the Czech Rep have a draw) than the winner of Australia and Croatia has nothing but soft (softish or softer opponants untill the semi finals eg Switzerland/Ukranine etc… but they would play Argentina in the Semi’s

Anyway this is all “what if” stuff. But basically results could fall in such a way that the runner up of Group F could end up in the best part of the draw

I don’t know this is giving me a headache

Latter.

good luck to all teams
Caveman Engineer

Hrvatska…?
John

I like Italy and the USA in Group E and Brazil and Aussies in Group F.

Italy has something to prove, and the Czechs are just too banged and booked up to mount enough offense. I do not believe Italy will play for a draw because the US-Ghana match will be going on at the same time and they can’t risk a big win by either side in that game. It might leave them out entirely.

The US and Ghana are both out two starters, but I think Ghana will suffer more by missing the two strikers who scored against the Czechs. The US can survive the loss of their starters more readily. I also think the US is a bit deeper, which may well come into play late in the game. I suspect it will be a very physical and fast-paced game, and that usually leads to lots of fouls and tired legs in the final minutes. The US should prevail, possibly on a late goal. Of course, they may run out of steam faster than Ghana, since they had to play with just 9 men against Italy for the entire 2nd half last Saturday. I sure hope the US is as fit as they claimed coming in. Should be a GREAT GAME!
John

Oops, my mistake. If Italy draws the CR, they’ll advance with 5 points either way. A Ghana win gives them 6 points and the Group win if Italy-CR tie, and Italy moves on in 2nd place with 5 points. If the US wins, Italy wins the Group if they tie CR, and it comes down to goal differential between the US and CR. So yes, Italy could well play for the draw. I still don’t think they will, however, because they won’t want to face Brazil in Round 2 if they can avoid it. The only way to ensure that is to beat the Czechs. GO ITALY!
http://usa.worldcupblog.org/group-e/the-situation-is-this.html The Situation Is This – FIFA World Cup 2006 – USA World Cup Team Blog

[...] Over on the main page, Bob has been busy calculating who needs what to happen today in Group E. [...]
http://sports.godblessthefreaks.org Philip

I just made a post on my own blog regarding the different Group E scenarios, from an unabashedly biased point of view of course!
WC ‘06: Is the American goose cooked?

Executive summary: I think there’s a good chance that Italy and Czechia will play to a soft draw, especially if the US gets a big lead.
http://sports.godblessthefreaks.org Philip

Oh, and Faron is correct — the Group E scenario above is in error. “If they draw and the USA beat Ghana, Italy would need a better goal difference than the Americans to win the group (currently +2 for Italy, and -3 for the USA).” No, ITA would have five points and USA would have four. The US cannot possibly win Group E.
Eric Berg

My heart says Italy and the US will advance.

My head says Italy and the Czech Republic.
Claude

Let’s forget all this crap on goal difference for the US. They dug themselves such a big hole when they played the Czech Republic that they need to beat Ghana and for Italy to win. Any other result and the US is finished in WC 2006. I suspect the Italy-Czech game will be a draw. The Italy-Czech game could really heat up as the two benches hear the score from Ghana and USA. If Ghana takes the lead the coaches for Italy and Czech Republic will crank up their offenses. Italy will only be satisfied with a tie if they can win the group and Czech Republic can’t play for the tie if Ghana is winning.

So I am picking Italy to win the group followed by Czech Republic.

I don’t think Japan will beat Brazil and that leaves Australia vs. Croatia. I don’t think Croatia will collapse like Japan did. Here I go with Croatia coming in second to the lack luster team from Brazil.
Hutch

I believe Italy will win over the Czech republic due to the fact they will play hard for 3 reasons. 1) They don’t want to play Brazil in the next round. 2) If they lose to Czech and Ghana wins, they are out of the world cup entirely. 3) A 1-1 tie with the U.S. is embarrasing to them. The U.S. will win though after gaining confidence it’s just a question of how much. Go USA
John

I don’t see a draw in the Italy-CR game. Of course, it may happen regardless of either team’s intention, but I really do think Italy will come out with both barrels blazing. They have something to prove after being outshined by the US, and they want to avoid Brazil. Add to the scenario the fact that CR is beat up and missing key offensive firepower, and I think it’s a recipe for an Italy win. I call it 2-0 or maybe even 3-0.
DeKaY

I know this is weird, but I’m predicting the following:

Group E:
Italy – Czech Rep. (2:2)
Ghana – USA (1:1)

Group F:
Brazil – Japan (1:0)
Australia – Croatia (2:1)

So….
Group E: Italy and Czech Republic through (match fix!!)
Group F: Aussies through
(Hiddink da man!)
Mason

DeKay-

Italians? Match fixing? How dare you insult their honor?!?!?!? (tounge in cheek)
OPKO

Here is what I want to see:
- Brazil, Croatia
- Italy, Ghana

But to the previous few points, I think Czech and Italy will somehow squeak through.