A Fancy Formula for Predicting World Cup Victories

May 27th, 2006 | by: WC Bob |

P(n) = λne-λ over n! That is all you need to know to predict the World Cup winner. The formula is used by a firm that boasts of its accomplishments in predicting football matches. A few months back when we looked at their predictions they had France listed as the team with the best probability of winning the World Cup. The data has changed and so have the probabilities for each team.

The new favorite is a familiar one, Brazil, which apparently has a 13.5% chance of hoisting the trophy. France and Germany both are said to have an 11% chance of winning it all, while the Netherlands and Spain round out the top five.

The odds aren’t so great for Italy, England and Argentina, with each hovering near 5% according the model. Iran and Costa Rica are both given a measely .1% chance of winning, which isn’t great but beats the 0% probability for Angola, Togo, Saudi Arabia, Ghana and Trinidad and Tobago.

I probably don’t need to remind many of you about this, but in the equation used:

‘n’ is the number of goals scored, ‘lambda’ is the expected number of goals, ‘e’ is a natural logarithm and the exclamation mark is ‘factorial’, a function of ‘n’. P is the probability distribution of goals scored.

You can find out the odds for your country to make each stage of the tournament, by heading this way. We’ll see if their predictions fair any better than ours, which were derived through a very scientific method that we will not reveal but that did involve beer, darts and an abacus.

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Stix

Some interesting numbers there with the probabilities from the group play. If I were smarter I would question them but I never could handle long division.
http://worldcupp.blogspot.com JodiBosa

This article describes the results of a simulation run by the folks at UBS Wealth Management Research in determining their prediction for World Cup 2006 winner.
Cajun Nick

Reminds me of an episode of What’s Happening.

Rerun and Dwayne were racking up big money by betting on NFL games. When they were asked what their formula was, they responded,

“We take the number attendance at home games, divide it by the attendance at away games, and multiply it by the number of miles between stadiums.”

“Well, what if the number is the same?”

“Then we pick the team with the prettiest helmets.”

I’ve got to say, I’m pretty tempted to do the same. Anybody seen the new Cote d’Ivoire kit? Niiice!
http://ecuador.worldcupblog.org/ Trent

Cajun Nick, I hereby award to you the coveted yet made-up award of Best What’s Happenin’ Reference of the Month. The award is colloquially known as the “Shirl”.

Well done.
Cajun Nick

Thanks, Trent.

Just stop hugging me.

I can’t breeeathe!
http://ecuador.worldcupblog.org/ Trent

Re-Run: I can’t help it if I’m fat! It runs in my family.

Dee: Nobody runs in your family… they all waddle.
Bidemi

It seems they don’t like the idea of draws at at all.
style

HOw do they get the number for expected goals?
Tomislav

‘ ‘lambda’ is the expected number of goals ’

The EXPECTED number of goals. This statement total cancels any scientific this formula has.

Look people, Croatia is gonna be world champions OK! So put away you calculators black boards sit back and enjoy the show.
http://fo.reca.st/ Angelina

Well, if i look at so called “forecast field” at http://fo.reca.st the favourites are Brazil, followed by Germany, England and France.
Tomislav

Correction.

I meant to say ’scientific value’

I still standby the statement remainder.
Cajun Nick

Formula, smor-mula.

I’m tired of looking and relooking at the teams’ strengths and weaknesses; match-ups and injuries; past history; and such.

To answer Hank Williams, Jr. – I’m ready for some football.

To that end, I’ve decided to submit my predictions today and not look back, except maybe with tears (of joy?) in my eyes.

For what it’s worth, here they are (and, by the way, even if they don’t happen, they would be pretty interesting, IMHO):

1/8-Finals
Germany v England (veeeery interesting)
Netherlands v Mexico (nice build-up v good counter-attacking)
Czech Rep. v Croatia ESPN commentators go whole match without calling any player by his name)
France v Tunisia (can the Tunisian extract a little revenge against the “invaders”
Sweden v Ecuador (efficient, if slightly boring, match-up)
Portugal v Argentina (what a pretty match to watch)
Brazil v Italy (a classic)
Spain v South Korea (Raul exorcises the (Red) Devils

1/4-Finals
GER v NED (neighbors, but not friends)
CZE v FRA East Europeans v North Africans…er..well, you know what I mean)
SWE v ARG (teamwork v technical creativity)
BRA v ESP (With all the best Liga players on the other team, Spain finally falls)

1/2-Finals
GER v CZE (repeat of Euro ‘96)
ARG v BRA (coulda been a final)

Finals
GER v BRA (hosts v holders)

CHAMPION
BRAZIL (and we’re treated to another 4 years of relentless Nike commercials that continue to make us root for the other team)
kyro

cajun nick u got no idea m8. Ur a nutjob. Ur comments r unnecessary and no-one cares! U comic-book guy wannabe (from simpsons). im a nominal
Babak

lol what a joke. I wonder how much chance Greece would have gotten at Euro
fasullo

Ohhh cajun nick you are so wise beyond my years! That coming from me, someone who studies the other 18 hours a day im not in school! Do you think we could meet up? I’d really like to dive into the dwellings that are your mind and question you on topics of today that us ’sensitive new age guys’ discuss! You inspired me to type on this blog and completely express myself and for that i love you! Your analysis of the game is flawless hehe, i liked it when you said “we’d be in for another four years of nike brazil commercials”, I thought it was cute and i’d like to make my own video’s with you!!!!!
ukima

interesting formula,anyone know winning formula for roulette… i will be watching the game and placing my bet at genting casino in malaysia
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