A Fancy Formula for Predicting World Cup Victories
P(n) = λne-λ over n! That is all you need to know to predict the World Cup winner. The formula is used by a firm that boasts of its accomplishments in predicting football matches. A few months back when we looked at their predictions they had France listed as the team with the best probability of winning the World Cup. The data has changed and so have the probabilities for each team.
The new favorite is a familiar one, Brazil, which apparently has a 13.5% chance of hoisting the trophy. France and Germany both are said to have an 11% chance of winning it all, while the Netherlands and Spain round out the top five.
The odds aren’t so great for Italy, England and Argentina, with each hovering near 5% according the model. Iran and Costa Rica are both given a measely .1% chance of winning, which isn’t great but beats the 0% probability for Angola, Togo, Saudi Arabia, Ghana and Trinidad and Tobago.
I probably don’t need to remind many of you about this, but in the equation used:
‘n’ is the number of goals scored, ‘lambda’ is the expected number of goals, ‘e’ is a natural logarithm and the exclamation mark is ‘factorial’, a function of ‘n’. P is the probability distribution of goals scored.
You can find out the odds for your country to make each stage of the tournament, by heading this way. We’ll see if their predictions fair any better than ours, which were derived through a very scientific method that we will not reveal but that did involve beer, darts and an abacus.
 |
Soccer Forums | International Results |  |
 |  Travel |
Related Posts
Subscribe
|
Print
|
Share        |
Comments
Displaying the most recent 25 comments from a total of 27 comments.
Read the rest of the comments
By JodiBosa | May 27th, 2006 at 7:31 pm 
Posted from 
Canada
By Cajun Nick | May 27th, 2006 at 7:42 pm Reminds me of an episode of What’s Happening.
Rerun and Dwayne were racking up big money by betting on NFL games. When they were asked what their formula was, they responded,
“We take the number attendance at home games, divide it by the attendance at away games, and multiply it by the number of miles between stadiums.”
“Well, what if the number is the same?”
“Then we pick the team with the prettiest helmets.”
I’ve got to say, I’m pretty tempted to do the same. Anybody seen the new Cote d’Ivoire kit? Niiice!
Posted from 
United States
By Trent | May 27th, 2006 at 9:44 pm Cajun Nick, I hereby award to you the coveted yet made-up award of Best What’s Happenin’ Reference of the Month. The award is colloquially known as the “Shirl”.
Well done.
By Cajun Nick | May 27th, 2006 at 10:01 pm Thanks, Trent.
Just stop hugging me.
I can’t breeeathe!
Posted from United States
By Trent | May 27th, 2006 at 10:45 pm Re-Run: I can’t help it if I’m fat! It runs in my family.
Dee: Nobody runs in your family… they all waddle.
By Bidemi | May 28th, 2006 at 5:17 am It seems they don’t like the idea of draws at at all.
Posted from 
United Kingdom
By style | May 28th, 2006 at 5:31 am HOw do they get the number for expected goals?
Posted from 
Australia
By Tomislav | May 28th, 2006 at 6:02 am ‘ ‘lambda’ is the expected number of goals ’
The EXPECTED number of goals. This statement total cancels any scientific this formula has.
Look people, Croatia is gonna be world champions OK! So put away you calculators black boards sit back and enjoy the show.
Posted from Australia
By Angelina | May 28th, 2006 at 6:05 am Well, if i look at so called “forecast field” at http://fo.reca.st the favourites are Brazil, followed by Germany, England and France.
By Tomislav | May 28th, 2006 at 6:52 am Correction.
I meant to say ’scientific value’
I still standby the statement remainder.
Posted from Australia
By Cajun Nick | May 28th, 2006 at 11:13 am Formula, smor-mula.
I’m tired of looking and relooking at the teams’ strengths and weaknesses; match-ups and injuries; past history; and such.
To answer Hank Williams, Jr. – I’m ready for some football.
To that end, I’ve decided to submit my predictions today and not look back, except maybe with tears (of joy?) in my eyes.
For what it’s worth, here they are (and, by the way, even if they don’t happen, they would be pretty interesting, IMHO):
1/8-Finals
Germany v England (veeeery interesting)
Netherlands v Mexico (nice build-up v good counter-attacking)
Czech Rep. v Croatia ESPN commentators go whole match without calling any player by his name)
France v Tunisia (can the Tunisian extract a little revenge against the “invaders”
Sweden v Ecuador (efficient, if slightly boring, match-up)
Portugal v Argentina (what a pretty match to watch)
Brazil v Italy (a classic)
Spain v South Korea (Raul exorcises the (Red) Devils
1/4-Finals
GER v NED (neighbors, but not friends)
CZE v FRA East Europeans v North Africans…er..well, you know what I mean)
SWE v ARG (teamwork v technical creativity)
BRA v ESP (With all the best Liga players on the other team, Spain finally falls)
1/2-Finals
GER v CZE (repeat of Euro ‘96)
ARG v BRA (coulda been a final)
Finals
GER v BRA (hosts v holders)
CHAMPION
BRAZIL (and we’re treated to another 4 years of relentless Nike commercials that continue to make us root for the other team)
Posted from United States
By kyro | May 28th, 2006 at 8:25 pm cajun nick u got no idea m8. Ur a nutjob. Ur comments r unnecessary and no-one cares! U comic-book guy wannabe (from simpsons). im a nominal
Posted from Australia
By Babak | May 28th, 2006 at 11:33 pm lol what a joke. I wonder how much chance Greece would have gotten at Euro
By fasullo | May 29th, 2006 at 3:20 am Ohhh cajun nick you are so wise beyond my years! That coming from me, someone who studies the other 18 hours a day im not in school! Do you think we could meet up? I’d really like to dive into the dwellings that are your mind and question you on topics of today that us ’sensitive new age guys’ discuss! You inspired me to type on this blog and completely express myself and for that i love you! Your analysis of the game is flawless hehe, i liked it when you said “we’d be in for another four years of nike brazil commercials”, I thought it was cute and i’d like to make my own video’s with you!!!!!
Posted from Australia
By ukima | June 3rd, 2006 at 7:24 am interesting formula,anyone know winning formula for roulette… i will be watching the game and placing my bet at genting casino in malaysia
Posted from 
Brunei Darussalam
By www.retail-nike.com | July 22nd, 2006 at 6:39 pm we offer grade aaa shoes here with wholesale price! our shoes have some advantages as following!
1. Original manufactory and strong material supplier.
2. Grade aaa shoes and lower wholesale price
3. 100% safe and faster shipping method (lots shipping method let you choose)
4. best service (We can send the products within 24 hours after getting payment, and the shipping takes no more than 5 days ,and we will give you tracking number asap, so you can trace your package through the website)
5. no mini order here
if you are interest in our product,pls contact (retail.nike-shoes at hot mail dot co m) us
Web: http://www.retail-nike.com
Product Album: http://chendeyu1.photo.163.com
MSN:retail.nike-shoes@hotmail.com
Posted from 
China
By Nick | November 1st, 2006 at 8:20 pm low price,good serive, best safe shipping!
wholesale nike shoes,retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale jordan shoes, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape shoes, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape hoodies, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape jeans, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bbc hoodies, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale NFL/NBA , retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
Web: http://www.retail-nike.com
Product Album: http://chendeyu1.photo.163.com
MSN:retail.nike-shoes@hotmail.com
Yahoo mail: mickey821118@yahoo.com
Phone: 0086-13666072079
Address:jingban, xiamen, china 361006
Posted from China
By Nick | November 1st, 2006 at 8:37 pm low price,good serive, best safe shipping!
wholesale nike shoes,retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale Jordan Michael shoes, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape shoes, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape hoodies, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bape jeans, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale bbc hoodies, retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
wholesale NFL/NBA , retail-nike.com,low price.good serive,safe shipping!
Web: http://www.retail-nike.com
Product Album: http://chendeyu1.photo.163.com
MSN:retail.nike-shoes@hotmail.com
Yahoo mail: mickey821118@yahoo.com
Phone: 0086-13666072079
Address:jingban, xiamen, china 361006
Posted from China
By Nick | November 5th, 2006 at 6:08 pm We are a company which founded in 1997 , located in Xiamen,China. We are professional supplier of famous brand products( such as : NFL/NBA jersey, BAPE/BBC/Evisu/LGR hoodies, AF1,Air jordan1~21.5,lacoste/polo t-shirt,Nike shoes,bape shoes,puma brand jeans The north face etc )The selling proposition of our company are : competitive price, superior quality ,fashionable models and good service,best fast shipping. They are our company’s operative principle, it has won loyalty of many customers. And the suggestion from repeat customers keep us improving . For appreciating continual support of customers, we put all current inventory on sale at preferential price. On the other hand , We can provide most reliable and fast transportation service, because we take out insurance against shipping cost (including seizing by customs), we make compensation to help that offset your loss. For further information :
Web: http://www.retail-nike.com
Product Album: http://chendeyu1.photo.163.com
MSN:retail.nike-shoes@hotmail.com
Yahoo mail: mickey821118@yahoo.com
Phone: 0086-13666072079
Address:jingban, xiamen, china 361006
pls feel free to contact us
Posted from China
By Martin | November 5th, 2006 at 6:39 pm We are a company which founded in 1997 , located in Xiamen,China. We are professional supplier of famous brand products( such as : NFL/NBA jersey, BAPE/BBC/Evisu/LGR hoodies, AF1,Air jordan1~21.5,lacoste/polo t-shirt,Nike shoes,bape shoes,puma etc )The selling proposition of our company are : competitive price, superior quality ,fashionable models and good service. They are our company’s operative principle, it has won loyalty of many customers. And the suggestion from repeat customers keep us improving . For appreciating continual support of customers, we put all current inventory on sale at preferential price. On the other hand , We can provide most reliable and fast transportation service, because we take out insurance against shipping cost (including seizing by customs), we make compensation to help that offset your loss. For further information :
Web: http://www.famousbrandtrade.com
Product Album: http://chendeyu1.photo.163.com
MSN:famousbrand_trade@hotmail.com
Mail: mickey82118@yahoo.com
Phone: 0086-13666072079
Address:jingban, xiamen, china 361006
Posted from China
By Martin | November 5th, 2006 at 6:40 pm wholesale nike shoes
wholesale Jordan michael shoes
wholesale bape hoodies/jeans/T-shirt
wholesale bbc hoodies/jeans/T-shirt
wholesale lacoste /Polo T-shirt
wholesale NFL/NBA jerseys
wholesale bape shoes
wholesale red monkey jeans
wholesale evisu jeans
wholesale the north face
low price,good serive, best safe shipping,good quality!
Web: http://www.famousbrandtrade.com
MSN:famousbrand_trade@hotmail.com
Posted from China
By worldsport01 | November 25th, 2006 at 9:06 am Dear Sir or Madam:
how are you?
hope you are ok!
i can offer brand goods for you,also i will give you whole price and good quality for you and i am very serious and honesity about business, i aim at keep long-term business with each of my customer.expecting your replying ,thanks very muc.
my msn is worldsport01 and my email is heng_hometownatyahoodotcomdotcn
website:www.worldsporttrade.com
the courier we used:EMS,TNT,UPS.Fedex
they are very fast and safe
EMS is 6/7 days arrived
TNT is 5/6 days arrived
nike ,jordan andbape :$35 pair
lacoste and polo shirts:$13 a piece
timeberland ,prada and gucci :$45 a pair
hat:$10 a piece
sunglasses:$19 a piece
jacket:$39 a piece
jeans:$39 a piece
weman shoes and boots;$42 a pair
the price i give you have been included shipping fee
best regard
your friendly
xiao
Posted from Australia
By sell nfl nba jerseys | December 7th, 2007 at 2:37 am welcome to http://www.bape168.com we are nike shoes china wholesale nike shoes
Nike wholesale – Nike shoes wholesale. Nike shoes: Nike shox air force1 jordan TL NZ R4 Turbo Monster shoes,Nike air max ltd 95 360 97 2003 TN Plus shoes,Nike air jordan shoes,Nike air dunk shoes. We sale wholesale Nike shoes(Nike trainers, Nike sneakers, Nike basketball shoes, Nike running shoes, Nike Men’s shoes,Nike women’s shoes, Nike mens shoes, Nike womens shoes, nike cheap discount shoes). Nike shox shoes wholesale(Nike shox tl – shox tl 3 III, Nike shox nz,Nike shox r4,Nike shox r5,Nike shox turbo,nike shox monster,nike shox VC OZ Ride shoes). Nike air max shoes wholesale(Nike air max tn plus,Nike air max 360,Nike air max 95, Nike air max 97, Nike air max 2003,Nike air max 2004,Nike air max 90). Nike shoes wholesale other sport shoes(retro nike air jordan 21 XXI 11 XI 13 20,nike air dunk low min high, Nike air rift,Nike air force 1 one).we also wholesale NFL jerseys,handbags,t-shirts,phone,MP4,jeans,etc brand products, China Nike factory sale and wholesale nike shoes to your nike shop & nike store, Nike wholesale nike shoes to United States America and England and United Kingdom and Europe.email:nike-bape88@hotmail.com,msn: nike-bape88@hotmail.com http://www.bape168.com
Posted from Australia
By wholesale bape hoodies and jeans | December 7th, 2007 at 2:40 am wholesale nike jordan adidas gucc puma shoes and bape evsiu hoodies ed hoody http://www.bape168.com
Posted from Australia
By sales nfl nba 20usd | December 7th, 2007 at 2:42 am Comments are closed
