Why Euro 2008 Conspiracy Theories Are Rubbish
There’s been plenty of muttering about teams deliberately losing in today’s final round of Euro 2008 qualifiers. It’s been suggested that a team like Joachim Low’s Germany, currently second in Group D, would be at a disadvantage if they beat Wales tonight and top the group (assuming the Czechs don’t beat Cyprus.) Why would anyone deliberately finish second? The theory goes like this:
When the 24 qualified Euro 2008 teams are drawn into four groups of four in December, they’ll be seeded. The top four seeds will be hosts Austria and Switzerland, current champions Greece and whichever team has the best co-efficient (complicated mathematical thingy that UEFA use, based on previous tournaments.) The thinking is that because three of the top seeds are regarded as weak, the likes of Germany are better off finishing in second place and potentially being drawn with one of these teams.
The big problem with that theory is that it drastically underestimates Austria, Switzerland and Greece. Sure Austria are bad, so bad that their own fans have petitioned for the team to save them from embarrassment and withdraw from competing at Euro 2008, but that’s forgetting the whole host nation thing. Host nations consistently rise to the occasion and perform better than expected. South Korea made the World Cup semi-finals in 2002, and weren’t Germany supposed to be useless prior to World Cup 2006?
Switzerland are a young and decent team who’ll be dangerous for the same reasons. The Swiss may be famously neutral, but they’ll be supporting their team loud and proud. And Greece not only won Euro 2004, they currently have the highest points total in qualifying. They’re not a team of high profile multi-millionaires, but that might be why they’re so effective.
All of this may be moot anyway, because Germany are playing a Welsh side so ravaged by injuries and suspensions to senior players that John Toshack could be fielding six players under 21 and only one (Simon Davies) with Premier League experience. If that happens, and Germany fail to beat Wales at home, then we’ll know something’s up.
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Comments
By Jan | November 21st, 2007 at 1:04 pm 
The only way for Germany to kick the Netherlands out of the first pot would be, if Netherlands lose against Belarus and Germany beat Wales. Klose has announced that he wouldn’t mind a goal fest against Wales, so I think Germany can be booked to beat Wales. But watch out for a shock result by Belarus against the Dutchies.;-)
Posted from 
Germany
By Laurie | November 21st, 2007 at 1:10 pm The best description I’ve read of Joachim Low was after the England game. It said, “He looks like at any moment he’s going to pull out a cello and start playing.” I could just picture it. 
Posted from 
United States
By Betfair Bratwurst | November 21st, 2007 at 2:01 pm Yes, it’s an interesting comparison isn’t it: Low and McClaren. Low has not had as many critics coming off the World Cup third place with Klinsmann, while McClaren has been saddled with the baggage of Sven. The baggage that he’s done quite a lot to get rid of – dropping Beckham, showing a bit more flexibility with the system, axing Lampard for the good of the team balance.
Low has had it easy really, they’ve qualified at walking pace because of Ireland’s ineptitude. Will be interesting how these easy 18 months stand Low in good stead when the heat’s on next summer and Germany expects to win it!
By Jan | November 21st, 2007 at 2:38 pm And Belarus beat the Netherland 2-1.:-) So a win by Germany should book them the undesirable pot 1 seeding…
Posted from Germany
By Mr Wales | November 21st, 2007 at 4:54 pm Germany couldnt have won the group anyway.
Czechs won the group before the game kicked off. They beat Slovakia & have the better head to head against Germany winning & drawing.
Maybe you should familiarise yourself with the qualifing rules before making up conspirecy theories.
Posted from 
United Kingdom
By Jan | November 21st, 2007 at 5:42 pm Mr Wales, careful, the seeding for the pots is potentially independent from whether a country finishes top in this qualifying campaign as the results from the last two qualifying campaigns are used to decide the seeding.
So Germany could have been top seed had they beaten Wales. Though, Germany was definitely not interested in this match, though Borowski hit the post, and Klose and Gomez had a header each, which could have been a goal, so I don’t know whether they deliberately didn’t want to win this match. And whether the Netherlands deliberately wanted to lose against Belarus isn’t clear either.
Posted from Germany
By Daryl | November 21st, 2007 at 6:25 pm For the record, it wasn’t the Czech’s win against Slovakia on Saturday that guaranteed top spot, it was the win against Cyprus today. It’s true that they started today level on points with Germany but top due to their superior head to head record, but they could still have fallen into second place on points had results gone differently today.
By fixed! | November 21st, 2007 at 10:44 pm The group finish was irrelevant though. All that mattered was how many points Germany got from their final match relative to the Netherlands. UEFA don’t take any notice whatsoever of group placings when determining the seeds for the final draw.
Posted from 
Australia
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