Why Euro 2008 Conspiracy Theories Are Rubbish
There’s been plenty of muttering about teams deliberately losing in today’s final round of Euro 2008 qualifiers. It’s been suggested that a team like Joachim Low’s Germany, currently second in Group D, would be at a disadvantage if they beat Wales tonight and top the group (assuming the Czechs don’t beat Cyprus.) Why would anyone deliberately finish second? The theory goes like this:
When the 24 qualified Euro 2008 teams are drawn into four groups of four in December, they’ll be seeded. The top four seeds will be hosts Austria and Switzerland, current champions Greece and whichever team has the best co-efficient (complicated mathematical thingy that UEFA use, based on previous tournaments.) The thinking is that because three of the top seeds are regarded as weak, the likes of Germany are better off finishing in second place and potentially being drawn with one of these teams.
The big problem with that theory is that it drastically underestimates Austria, Switzerland and Greece. Sure Austria are bad, so bad that their own fans have petitioned for the team to save them from embarrassment and withdraw from competing at Euro 2008, but that’s forgetting the whole host nation thing. Host nations consistently rise to the occasion and perform better than expected. South Korea made the World Cup semi-finals in 2002, and weren’t Germany supposed to be useless prior to World Cup 2006?
Switzerland are a young and decent team who’ll be dangerous for the same reasons. The Swiss may be famously neutral, but they’ll be supporting their team loud and proud. And Greece not only won Euro 2004, they currently have the highest points total in qualifying. They’re not a team of high profile multi-millionaires, but that might be why they’re so effective.
All of this may be moot anyway, because Germany are playing a Welsh side so ravaged by injuries and suspensions to senior players that John Toshack could be fielding six players under 21 and only one (Simon Davies) with Premier League experience. If that happens, and Germany fail to beat Wales at home, then we’ll know something’s up.
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http://bundesliga.theoffside.com/ Jan
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Laurie
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http://bundesliga.theoffside.com/ Jan
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http://www.worldcupblog.org/world-cup-2006/world-cup-round-up-new-kits-israeli-conspiracies-benelux-2018.html Betfair Bratwurst
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Mr Wales
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http://bundesliga.theoffside.com/ Jan
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http://www.worldcupblog.org Daryl
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fixed!

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